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A Review of Q2 in the Automotive Aftermarket

Date: August 24, 2020
Source: Philip Atkins, AASA Director, Strategic Research and Planning
As many of you know, each quarter AASA surveys its members to get a pulse on sales performance throughout the automotive aftermarket. That data is then reported in our quarterly AASA Barometer Report.
 
But before you dive into the report, here are some top-level insights for benchmarking your company’s performance against.
 
Q1 Was Tough, And So Was Q2
 
Coming out of Q1, it was clear that Q2 would be a hard one as miles traveled were down as much as 40% in  April. Visits to repair shops were off 50% for the quarter, and foot traffic in retailers was way down.
 
So it’s no surprise that in Q2, 62% of respondents reported that they expect declines in their total aftermarket sales. More specifically, 81% of respondents in the independent aftermarket reported sales decreases compared to one year ago. And when we averaged the amount of increases and decreases that members reported, we saw that the average sales change was -11%.
 
That represents the largest decrease that we have ever seen in the Barometer survey.


 
Likewise, 72% reported sales decreases in the OES segment with an average sales change of -7% and that too is a record low.
 
So, What’s Ahead For the Aftermarket?
 
New orders booked in the second quarter were soft for many members as half of them reported a lower volume of new orders this quarter compared to one year ago.
 
More telling is that the average volume of their new orders were 6.8% lower than it was a year ago.
 
But because automobiles are a household priority, members are optimistic about future sales. For example, based on member input, our index of  Future Aftermarket Sales rebounded from a record low of  negative 76 in Q1 to a positive 29 (on a scale of -100 to +100). This foretells moderate growth in Q3.
 


Then,  looking ahead through the end of Q2 next year, members were much more optimistic about the market, with the Supplier Sentiment Index rebounding from the low of -50 that we saw last quarter to +12. And the timing of this rebound, by the way, is consistent with what Wall Street analysts are forecasting.
 
Interested in More Q2 Insights?
 
These were highlights from our 30-page AASA Barometer Report.
 
AASA Members can access the full report right here.
 
If you want to participate in our next Barometer survey, please email me
 
And please stay tuned for more updates from me and the AASA team.
 
We’ll do our best to keep you connected to what matters.
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